Donald Trump’s return to the global political stage has sparked a series of measures poised to shake the foundations of international trade and taxation. His administration’s decision to retaliate against countries imposing “extraterritorial” levies on U.S. multinationals not only reopens old conflicts but also lays the groundwork for a systemic shift in global economic policy.
The Fiscal Battle: Multinationals in the Crosshairs
In a recent executive order, Trump took a bold step by withdrawing U.S. support for the OECD’s global tax deal. This pact, signed in 2021, aimed to introduce a 15% minimum tax on the profits of the largest multinational companies, creating a fairer distribution of tax revenues across nations. However, Trump sees these measures as discriminatory against U.S. firms, particularly tech giants like Apple and Alphabet (Google).
The presidential memorandum also directs U.S. Treasury officials to investigate foreign tax policies that may disproportionately impact American companies. According to Grant Wardell-Johnson of KPMG, the U.S. could respond with severe measures, such as additional taxes on foreign-owned companies operating within the country. This marks a shift from multilateral fiscal frameworks to a unilateral approach, raising new tensions on the international stage.
A Fiscal War Expanding Its Scope
Trump’s focus extends beyond international tax regimes; his administration has broadened the scope of its “economic war” to other strategic areas. As former UK official Allie Renison notes, this is not just fiscal retaliation but a creative and aggressive application of the «America First» agenda.
The executive order also threatens sanctions against signatories of the tax deal, including key countries like the United Kingdom, Japan, Canada, and EU members. According to Alex Cobham of the Tax Justice Network, this strategy could stall progress on the OECD’s agreement, leaving global tax cooperation hanging in the balance.
Trade Policy: The Next Battlefield
While Trump challenges fiscal policies, his trade strategy promises equally profound impacts. Though he avoided imposing tariffs on the first day of his second term, markets will soon feel the effects of his renewed protectionist approach.
His trade policy memorandum, titled «America First,» seeks to identify unfair trade practices and currency manipulation, reviewing agreements with key partners like China, Canada, and Mexico. Trump has reiterated his threat to impose universal tariffs and targeted levies on Chinese goods, partly in response to fentanyl exports to North America.
North American supply chains, particularly in the automotive and manufacturing sectors, are already on high alert. Companies reliant on operations in Canada and Mexico could face massive disruptions if Trump follows through on his threats to renegotiate the USMCA trade deal.
Tariffs as a Political Tool
Beyond economic goals, Trump has made it clear that tariffs will serve as a means to achieve political objectives. He has linked potential tariffs on EU goods to the purchase of American oil and gas and tied taxes on China to an agreement on TikTok’s ownership.
This approach reflects a radical shift in how the U.S. uses trade to exert political influence. According to Kelly Ann Shaw, a former Trump trade advisor, the administration is prepared to deploy all available trade and economic tools in its protectionist crusade.
Global Impact and Potential Retaliation
Trump’s policies have raised alarms not only among the U.S.’s traditional trade partners but also within the OECD. The organization’s Secretary-General, Mathias Cormann, has expressed his intent to work with the U.S. administration to seek cooperative solutions that avoid double taxation and protect tax bases.
However, foreign governments are unwilling to back down easily. Canada and Mexico, in particular, have warned of retaliatory measures if tariffs are imposed, while the EU has indicated it will assess the implications of Washington’s new fiscal and trade policies.
Conclusion: A New Economic Order
Trump’s strategy marks the beginning of an era of heightened unilateralism in international fiscal and trade relations. By prioritizing the interests of American companies and workers, the former president seeks to reshape the global system on his terms. However, this strategy comes with significant risks, potentially triggering strong retaliation and further fragmentation of global cooperation.
As nations prepare to counter Trump’s measures, the world watches as the U.S. redefines its role in the global economy, with profound implications for trade, taxation, and the balance of power in the 21st century.
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