The OECD has significantly downgraded its global growth forecasts, signaling a deteriorating economic outlook for the next two years. These revisions affect not only global GDP expectations but also inflation, monetary policy, and international trade — shaping a challenging environment for financial markets.
Global Growth at Post-Pandemic Lows
According to the latest projections, global GDP is expected to slow to 2.9% in both 2025 and 2026, levels not seen since the pandemic. This contrasts with the resilience observed between 2021 and 2023, when growth exceeded 3% thanks to post-COVID recovery, expansive fiscal policies, and unprecedented monetary stimulus.
The current context is different: tighter financial conditions, weakening global trade, and rising geopolitical uncertainty are weighing on both investment and consumption.
United States: Growth Under Pressure, Inflation Persistent
The OECD projects that U.S. GDP will decline from a strong 2.8% in 2024 to 1.6% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026. This economic slowdown is expected to occur alongside inflation reaching 4% by the end of 2025, remaining well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target for an extended period.
What Does This Mean for Monetary Policy?
The Federal Reserve may postpone any rate cuts until well into 2026. This would have a direct impact on valuations across equities, bonds, and other risk assets. Markets, which had priced in rate cuts in 2025, will need to recalibrate to a more restrictive macro environment.
Trade Tensions: The Return of Protectionism
One of the key risk factors identified by the OECD is the resurgence of aggressive trade policies. The reintroduction of tariffs by the United States — especially under a potential second term for Donald Trump — is pushing the average effective tariff rate from 2.5% to over 15%, the highest level since World War II.
This shift toward protectionism is distorting not only trade flows but also investment decisions and global supply chains. Increased regulatory uncertainty directly affects capital formation and mid-term growth expectations.
Broad-Based Downgrades Across the G20
The economic slowdown is not limited to the U.S. Growth forecasts have been revised downward for nearly all G20 economies. Examples include:
- China: From 5% in 2024 to 4.7% in 2025 and 4.3% in 2026
- Eurozone: Growth stagnating around 1.0%
- United Kingdom: Cut to 1.3% in 2025 and 1.0% in 2026
- Japan: Only 0.7% in 2025 and 0.4% in 2026
Additionally, global trade — a historical growth engine — is expected to expand by only 2.8% in 2025 and 2.2% in 2026, according to the OECD.
Fiscal Risks and Low Investment: A Structural Achilles’ Heel
This slowdown is accompanied by a deterioration in public finances: defense spending and social pressures are on the rise, while investment in productive capital remains weak. Despite strong corporate earnings, many companies continue to favor share buybacks and liquidity accumulation over R&D or expansion.
This behavior structurally limits potential growth and may have lasting effects on productivity and sovereign debt sustainability.
Conclusion: How Should Investors Position Themselves?
For investors, the message is clear: we are entering a cycle of slower growth, persistent inflation, and elevated political and fiscal uncertainty. At WSV Research, we recommend:
- Increasing exposure to defensive sectors and companies with pricing power
- Reviewing portfolio interest rate sensitivity, adjusting duration and sector allocations
- Maintaining a selective international focus, avoiding regions with political instability or high trade dependence
- Prioritizing companies with high ROIC and strong balance sheets, capable of navigating adverse macroeconomic conditions
Today’s environment demands rigorous analysis and decision-making grounded in fundamentals. At WSV Research, we remain committed to delivering independent research to help you navigate markets with clarity and discipline.
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